Since Florida implemented a red flag gun law, the state’s rate of firearm homicides rose from 4.51 per 100,000 people in 2017 to 5.28 in 2021—while states with similarly conservative gun policies and no red flag laws saw a larger increase, from 4.50 to 6.85 firearm homicides per 100,000 people, according to a study issued in JAMA.
“In response to the 2018 Parkland high school shooting that killed 17 people, Florida’s legislature enacted a red flag law permitting the temporary removal of firearms by law enforcement officers from individuals posing a danger to themselves or others,” wrote Catherine Gimbrone, M.P.H., and Kara E. Rudolph, Ph.D., both at Columbia University Mailman School of Public Health. “Florida is one of the few politically conservative and largely pro-firearm states to pass a law restricting gun ownership.”
Gimbrone and Rudolph mined data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention on state-level homicide and suicide mortality rates from 2009 to 2021. They combined data from 2009 to 2021 from 19 states with similarly conservative gun laws that did not have a red flag gun law to create a comparison group, then adjusted for state sociodemographic and economic variables and determined average annual mortality rates.
The researchers reported the following:
- In Florida, the firearm homicide rate rose from 4.51 deaths per 100,000 people in 2017 to 5.28 in 2021; in the comparison group, firearm homicides increased from 4.50 to 6.85.
- Since 2018, 10,965 petitions have been filed under Florida’s red flag gun law, increasing from 1,192 in 2018 to 2,907 in 2022, exceeding those of states with comparable laws.
- From 2019 to 2021, Florida’s red flag law was associated with an 11% reduction in firearm homicide rates, equivalent to 0.73 fewer deaths per 100 000 population per year than comparison states.
- There were no differences from expected mortality rates in Florida’s firearm suicide or non-firearm homicide or suicide.
One limitation of the study is that it cannot definitively attribute the reduction in expected firearm homicide rates to Florida’s red flag law versus other societal changes after the Parkland high school mass shooting. “The magnitude of the estimated association is plausible, given estimates from studies on other gun control legislation,” researchers wrote. “Findings suggest that red flag laws may reduce the growing burden of firearm homicides.”
For more information, see the Psychiatric News article “Better Resident Training About State Gun Laws and Mental Health Needed.”
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