Suicide is a cyclical phenomenon that rises and falls every couple of decades, according to an
analysis of 122 years of United States mortality data that appeared yesterday in
PNAS. And while suicide rates have risen sharply over the past two decades, they still remain far below levels seen during the 1910s and 1930s.
Why Its Relevant
While understanding and preventing suicide has been a major public health initiative for decades, long-term suicide trends across multiple generations—and societal changes—are still poorly characterized. Now, by combining and harmonizing available national vital statistics data, researchers developed the Suicide Trends and Archival Comparative Knowledgebase (STACK), which contains detailed data from 1900 to 2021.
By the Numbers
- Overall, the United States experienced four significant upward trends in suicide deaths that started in 1900, 1920, 1960, and 2003; those rises peaked in 1908, 1932, 1977, and 2017, respectively, then trended downward.
- The highest suicide rates occurred during the 1910s and the Great Depression, averaging more than 17 deaths per 100,000 population. The lowest rates were seen around World War II and the mid-late 1950s, at just under 10 deaths per 100,000.
- From 1900 through the 1950s, suicide rates were an order of magnitude higher among older individuals (ages 45+) than younger ones, but by 1980, rates converged across all age groups except for those 5 to 14, for which they remained consistently low.
- Suicide deaths by hanging have risen significantly and consistently in both males and females since the 1990s.
The Other Side
The researchers acknowledged that national suicide statistics can be hampered by shortcomings, including a reliance on state-based medical reviews with different criteria, the potential for underreporting female suicides because they use less violent means, and less robust record keeping in the early-20th century.
Takeaway Message
“Without denying their role, if suicide were entirely determined by biological [or] psychological traits, or interpersonal crisis, then we would not expect to observe this cyclicality over the study period,” the researchers wrote. The doubling or halving of suicide rates across periods of 10 to 25-years suggests a close association with external forces, particularly economic and cultural changes that operate on similar timescales.
“Our findings strongly suggest that the substantial and standard public health efforts undertaken to prevent suicide at the individual level may have failed for lack of understanding the powerful influences of larger contexts,” the researchers concluded.
Related Information
Source
Nina de Lacy, et al. A century of suicide: Insights from long-term data in the United States. PNAS. Published April 27, 2026. doi: 10.1073/pnas.2519951123
(Image: Getty Images/iStock/Philip Hoeppli)